Info

Slack — the gap between what the economy does produce and what it could produce without pushing up inflation — is not observed directly. This page gathers the pieces of evidence that, taken together, suggest the euro area operated with substantial and persistent slack for most of the decade that followed the 2008 crisis, and that pockets of it are still visible.

The individual charts live on their own dataset pages; here they are lined up by theme.

Output gap and potential output

Europe vs. U.S. since 1999

Code

ig_d("oecd", "QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA", "USA-EA-1999-flags")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
oecd	QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Europe, US, OECD

2011-

Code

ig_d("oecd", "QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA", "USA-EA-OECD-2011-new-english")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
oecd	QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

2019-

Code

ig_d("oecd", "QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA", "USA-EA-OECD-2019-new-english")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
oecd	QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

AMECO: output gap, euro area and the big four

The European Commission’s own accounts put the euro area below potential from 2009 to 2019, with double-digit gaps in Spain and Italy at the trough.

Code

ig_d("ameco", "AVGDGP", "EA19-DEU-FRA-ITA-ESP")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
ameco	AVGDGP	02 Aug 2026	png	pdf

OECD: euro area vs the United States

The euro area suffered a double dip (2011-2013) that the United States did not: activity fell back below potential a second time as fiscal policy tightened and the sovereign-debt crisis spread.

Code

ig_d("oecd", "EO_GAP", "EA17-USA")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
oecd	EO_GAP	02 Aug 2026	png	pdf

Unemployment and the unemployment gap

Euro area unemployment since 1998

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "une_rt_m", "EA21-since-1998")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	une_rt_m	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Euro area and the big four

The aggregate hides a wide and long-lasting dispersion: Spanish and Italian unemployment stayed in double digits for most of the 2010s.

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "une_rt_m", "EA21-FR-DE-IT-ES-2002")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	une_rt_m	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Actual unemployment vs the NAWRU

AMECO’s estimate of structural unemployment (the NAWRU) drifts up whenever actual unemployment rises, mechanically re-labelling cyclical joblessness as structural and shrinking the measured amount of slack. Even so, actual unemployment stayed above the NAWRU from 2009 to 2018.

Code

ig_d("ameco", "ZNAWRU", "EA19-unemp-vs-nawru")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
ameco	ZNAWRU	02 Aug 2026	png	pdf

Broad labour-market slack

Eurostat labour-market slack: euro area and the big four

The unemployment rate understates slack. Eurostat’s broad measure adds involuntary part-timers, people available to work but not searching, and people searching but not immediately available. On that gauge roughly one in seven members of the extended euro-area labour force was under-used even in 2018-2019.

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "lfsi_sla_q", "SLACK-EA20-FR-DE-ES-IT")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	lfsi_sla_q	11 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Slack the unemployment rate misses

On top of the unemployed, three groups make up broad slack: people working part-time who want more hours, people available to work but not currently searching, and people searching but not immediately available. Together they add several percentage points of the extended labour force.

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "lfsi_sla_q", "EA20-slack-components")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	lfsi_sla_q	11 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Involuntary part-time work

Involuntary part-time employment — people working short hours because they cannot find full-time work — roughly doubled in France, Italy, Spain and Greece after 2008 while it fell in Germany.

Code

ig_d("oecd", "INVPT_I", "SHINV-EMP-FRA-DEU-ITA-ESP-GRC")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
oecd	INVPT_I	02 Aug 2026	png	pdf

Demand adressed to firms

Assessment of order-book levels, euro-area industry

In the European Commission’s industry survey, the balance of firms judging their order books “above” vs “below” normal stayed deeply negative from 2008 through 2013, briefly recovered around 2017-2018, and has turned negative again since 2023: for long stretches the binding constraint has been customers, not capacity.

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "ei_bsin_m_r2", "BS-IOB-EA20-2000")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	ei_bsin_m_r2	09 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Skills under-used

Euro area unemployment by education level

Slack reached the highly educated too: the unemployment rate of the tertiary-educated in the euro area rose after 2008 and stayed elevated, a sign that the shortfall in jobs was economy-wide rather than a qualifications problem.

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "lfsa_urgaed", "EA-unemployment-by-education")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	lfsa_urgaed	11 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Young people: unemployment, inactivity, emigration

Youth unemployment

Germany, Greece, Europe, Spain

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "tipslm80", "EA20-EL-ES-IT-DE")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	tipslm80	11 Sep 2026	png	pdf

NEET rate (15-29): not in employment, education or training

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "edat_lfse_18", "NEET-EA21-IT-ES-EL-DE")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	edat_lfse_18	11 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Emigration of young adults from southern Europe

When domestic labour markets stay slack, workers leave. Emigration of 20-34 year-olds from Italy rose through the 2010s and is still climbing; Spain and Greece spiked during the crisis years. (Spain’s series also reflects large numbers of foreign nationals leaving again, so read the level with care — the direction is the point.)

Code

ig_d("eurostat", "migr_emi2", "emigration-young-south")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
eurostat	migr_emi2	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Slack through tight credit

Bank Lending Survey

Code

ig_d("ecb", "BLS", "BLS.Q.U2.ALL.Z.H.H-C.B3.ZZ.D.WFNET")

Source	Dataset	Updated	PNG	PDF
ecb	BLS	23 Sep 2026	png	pdf

Datasets

source	dataset	Title	Updated
ameco	AVGDGP	Gap between actual and potential gross domestic product at 2015 reference levels - AVGDGP	2026-08-02
ameco	ZNAWRU	Non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment - ZNAWRU	2026-08-02
ecb	BLS	Bank Lending Survey Statistics - BLS	2026-09-23
eurostat	edat_lfse_18	Participation rate of young persons in education and training by labour status (incl. NEET rates) - edat_lfse_18	2026-09-11
eurostat	ei_bsin_m_r2	Business surveys - NACE Rev. 2 activity - Industry - monthly data - ei_bsin_m_r2	2026-09-09
eurostat	lfsa_urgaed	Unemployment rates by sex, age and educational attainment level (%) - lfsa_urgaed	2026-09-11
eurostat	lfsi_sla_q	Labour market transitions - quarterly data - lfsi_sla_q	2026-09-11
eurostat	migr_emi2	Emigration by age and sex - migr_emi2	2026-09-23
eurostat	tipslm80	Youth unemployment rate - % of active population aged 15-24 - tipslm80	2026-09-11
eurostat	une_rt_m	Unemployment by sex and age – monthly data - une_rt_m	2026-09-23
oecd	EO_GAP	Output gap as a percentage of potential GDP - GAP - EO - EO_GAP	2026-08-02
oecd	INVPT_I	Incidence of involuntary part time workers - INVPT_I	2026-08-02
oecd	QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA	Quarterly National Accounts, GDP Per Capita - QNA_EXPENDITURE_CAPITA	2026-09-23