Gap between actual and potential gross domestic product at 2015 reference levels - AVGDGP

Data - AMECO

Author

François Geerolf

Last observation: 2022 (N = 33)

First observation: 1965 (N = 158)

Last data update: 02 août 2026, 10:41

Last compile: 16 sept. 2026, 20:49

geo, Country

Code 
AVGDGP |>
  left_join(COU, by = "COU") |>
  group_by(COUNTRY) |>
  summarise(Nobs = n()) |>
  mutate(Flag = gsub(" ", "-", str_to_lower(COUNTRY)),
         Flag = paste0('<img src="../../icon/flag/vsmall/', Flag, '.png" alt="Flag">')) |>
  select(Flag, everything()) %>%
  {if (is_html_output()) datatable(., filter = 'top', rownames = F, escape = F) else .}

vintage

Code 
AVGDGP |>
  group_by(vintage) |>
  summarise(Nobs = n()) |>
  arrange(desc(vintage)) |>
  print_table_conditional()
vintage Nobs
2021 1396
2020 1364
2019 1366
2018 1327
2017 1275
2016 1242
2015 1209
2014 1127
2013 1060
2012 1026
2011 996

date

Code 
AVGDGP |>
  group_by(date) |>
  summarise(Nobs = n()) |>
  arrange(desc(date)) |>
  print_table_conditional()

France, Spain, Italy, Spain

All

Code 
AVGDGP |>
  filter(COU %in% c("FRA", "DEU", "ITA", "ESP"),
         vintage == 2021) |>
  left_join(COU, by = "COU") |>
  na.omit() |>
  mutate(value = value / 100) |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + ylab("Output Gap (% of GDP)") + xlab("") +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value, color = COUNTRY)) + add_4flags +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("#002395", "#000000", "#009246", "#C60B1E")) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.2, 0.2),
        legend.title = element_blank()) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*seq(-60, 60, 1),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 1))

1990-

Code 
AVGDGP |>
  filter(COU %in% c("FRA", "DEU", "ITA", "ESP"),
         vintage == 2021) |>
  left_join(COU, by = "COU") |>
  filter(date >= as.Date("1990-01-01")) |>
  na.omit() |>
  mutate(value = value / 100) |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + ylab("Output Gap (% of GDP)") + xlab("") +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value, color = COUNTRY)) + add_4flags +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("#002395", "#000000", "#009246", "#C60B1E")) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.2, 0.2),
        legend.title = element_blank()) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*seq(-60, 60, 1),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 1))

Euro-area slack

Output gap: euro area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain

Code 
AVGDGP |>
  filter(COU %in% c("EA19", "DEU", "FRA", "ITA", "ESP"),
         vintage == max(vintage)) |>
  left_join(COU, by = "COU") |>
  filter(!is.na(value), date >= as.Date("1999-01-01")) |>
  mutate(COUNTRY = ifelse(COU == "EA19", "Europe", COUNTRY)) |>
  add_flag_color("COUNTRY") |>
  mutate(value = value / 100) |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + xlab("") +
  ylab("Output gap (% of potential GDP)") +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linewidth = 0.3) +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value, color = color)) +
  scale_color_identity() + add_5flags +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01 * seq(-15, 15, 1),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 1))