John Fernald TFP - john-fernald-tfp

Data - john-fernald-tfp

Author

François Geerolf

Last observation: 2020 (N = 21)

First observation: 1948 (N = 21)

Last data update: 01 août 2026, 21:05

Last compile: 24 sept. 2026, 00:00

variable

Annual

Code 
annual_tfp |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  group_by(variable, Variable) |>
  summarise(Nobs = n()) |>
  print_table_conditional()
variable Variable Nobs
alpha Capital's share of income 73
dLP Business- sector labor productivity 73
dLQ Labor composition/quality actually used 73
dLQ_Aaronson_Sullivan NA 73
dLQ_BLS_interpolated Labor composition/quality from BLS 73
dY Output 73
dY_inc Business output, measured from income side 73
dY_prod Business output, expenditure (product) side 73
dhours Hours, bus sector 73
dk Capital input 73
dtfp Business sector TFP 73
dtfp_C TFP in non-equipment business output ("consumption") 73
dtfp_C_util Utilization-adjusted TFP in producing non-equipment output 73
dtfp_I TFP in equip and consumer durables 73
dtfp_I_util Utilization-adjusted TFP in producing equipment and consumer durables 73
dtfp_util Utilization-adjusted TFP 73
du_consumption Utilization in producing non-investment business output ("consumption") 73
du_invest Utilization in producing investment 73
dutil Utilization of capital and labor 73
invShare Equipment and consumer durables share of output 73
relativePrice Relative price of "consumption" to price of "equipment" 73

Quarterly

Code 
quarterly_tfp |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  group_by(variable, Variable) |>
  summarise(Nobs = n()) |>
  print_table_conditional()
variable Variable Nobs
alpha Capital's share of income 297
dLP Business- sector labor productivity 296
dLQ Labor composition/quality actually used 296
dLQ_Aaronson_Sullivan NA 168
dLQ_BLS_interpolated Labor composition/quality from BLS 296
dY Output 296
dY_inc Business output, measured from income side 296
dY_prod Business output, expenditure (product) side 296
dhours Hours, bus sector 296
dk Capital input 296
dtfp Business sector TFP 296
dtfp_C TFP in non-equipment business output ("consumption") 296
dtfp_C_util Utilization-adjusted TFP in producing non-equipment output 296
dtfp_I TFP in equip and consumer durables 296
dtfp_I_util Utilization-adjusted TFP in producing equipment and consumer durables 296
dtfp_util Utilization-adjusted TFP 296
du_consumption Utilization in producing non-investment business output ("consumption") 296
du_invest Utilization in producing investment 296
dutil Utilization of capital and labor 296
invShare Equipment and consumer durables share of output 297
month NA 297
relativePrice Relative price of "consumption" to price of "equipment" 296

Quarterly

Code 
quarterly_tfp |>
  filter(variable %in% c("dtfp", "dtfp_util")) |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + xlab("") + ylab("") +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value, color = Variable)) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(seq(-200, 100, 2))) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.25, 0.9),
        legend.title = element_blank()) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = viridis(3)[1:2])

Annual

Code 
annual_tfp |>
  filter(variable %in% c("dtfp", "dtfp_util")) |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + xlab("") + ylab("TFP growth (%)") +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value /100, color = Variable)) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*c(seq(-200, 100, 1)),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 1)) +
  geom_rect(data = nber_recessions |>
              filter(Peak > as.Date("1945-01-01")), 
            aes(xmin = Peak, xmax = Trough, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf), 
            fill = 'grey', alpha = 0.5) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.8, 0.9),
        legend.title = element_blank()) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = viridis(3)[1:2])

5-year TFP Growth

Line

Code 
annual_tfp |>
  filter(variable %in% c("dtfp", "dtfp_util")) |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  group_by(variable) |>
  mutate(value = value/100,
         value_5Y = ((1+value)*(1+lag(value))*(1+lag(value, 2))*(1+lag(value, 3))*(1+lag(value, 4)))^(1/5)-1) |>
  na.omit() |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + xlab("") + ylab("5-year previous TFP growth (%)") +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value_5Y, color = Variable)) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*c(seq(-200, 100, 0.5)),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = .1)) +
  geom_rect(data = nber_recessions |>
              filter(Peak > as.Date("1950-01-01")), 
            aes(xmin = Peak, xmax = Trough, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf), 
            fill = 'grey', alpha = 0.5) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.8, 0.9),
        legend.title = element_blank()) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = viridis(3)[1:2])

Scatter

Code 
annual_tfp |>
  filter(variable %in% c("dtfp", "dtfp_util")) |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  group_by(variable) |>
  mutate(value = value/100,
         value_5Y = ((1+value)*(1+lag(value))*(1+lag(value, 2))*(1+lag(value, 3))*(1+lag(value, 4)))^(1/5)-1) |>
  na.omit() |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + xlab("") + ylab("5-year previous TFP growth (%)") +
  geom_point(aes(x = date, y = value_5Y, color = Variable)) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*c(seq(-200, 100, 0.5)),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = .1)) +
  geom_rect(data = nber_recessions |>
              filter(Peak > as.Date("1950-01-01")), 
            aes(xmin = Peak, xmax = Trough, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf), 
            fill = 'grey', alpha = 0.5) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.8, 0.9),
        legend.title = element_blank()) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = viridis(3)[1:2])

10-year TFP Growth

Code 
annual_tfp |>
  filter(variable %in% c("dtfp", "dtfp_util")) |>
  left_join(variable, by = "variable") |>
  group_by(variable) |>
  mutate(value = value/100,
         value_5Y = ((1+value)*(1+lag(value))*(1+lag(value, 2))*(1+lag(value, 3))*(1+lag(value, 4))*(1+lag(value, 5))*(1+lag(value, 6))*(1+lag(value, 7))*(1+lag(value, 8))*(1+lag(value, 9)))^(1/10)-1) |>
  na.omit() |>
  ggplot() + theme_minimal() + xlab("") + ylab("10-year previous TFP growth (%)") +
  geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value_5Y, color = Variable)) +
  scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1920, 2100, 5) |> paste0("-01-01") |> as.Date(),
               labels = date_format("%Y")) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*c(seq(-200, 100, 0.5)),
                     labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = .1)) +
  geom_rect(data = nber_recessions |>
              filter(Peak > as.Date("1950-01-01")), 
            aes(xmin = Peak, xmax = Trough, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf), 
            fill = 'grey', alpha = 0.5) +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.8, 0.9),
        legend.title = element_blank()) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = viridis(3)[1:2])