data <- shiller_house_prices %>%
filter(month(date) == 1) %>%
select(date, value = real_house_index) %>%
mutate(variable = "real_index") %>%
bind_rows(phillips %>%
filter(variable %in% c("CUUR0000SEHA", "CPIAUCSL", "UNRATE")) %>%
filter(month(date) == 1)) %>%
spread(variable, value) %>%
mutate(real_index = log(real_index) - lag(log(real_index), 1),
rent_real = CUUR0000SEHA / CPIAUCSL,
rent_real = log(rent_real) - lag(log(rent_real), 1),
UNRATE = UNRATE / 100) %>%
select(-CUUR0000SEHA, -CPIAUCSL) %>%
gather(variable, value, -date) %>%
mutate(variable_desc = case_when(variable == "rent_real" ~ "Rent inflation (rel. to overall CPI)",
variable == "real_index" ~ "Real House Price inflation (Shiller's Index)",
variable == "UNRATE" ~ "Unemployment Rate"))
data %>%
ggplot + geom_line(aes(x = date, y = value, color = variable_desc, linetype = variable_desc)) +
ylab("") + xlab("") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c(viridis(4)[1], viridis(4)[1], viridis(4)[2])) +
scale_linetype_manual(values = c("solid", "dashed", "solid")) +
scale_x_date(breaks = seq(1700, 2025, 10) %>% paste0("-01-01") %>% as.Date,
labels = date_format("%y")) +
theme(legend.position = c(0.65, 0.85),
legend.title = element_blank(),
legend.key.size = unit(0.9, 'lines')) +
scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0.01*seq(-20, 60, 5),
labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 1)) +
geom_rect(data = data_frame(start = as.Date("1995-01-01"),
end = as.Date("1999-01-01")),
aes(xmin = start, xmax = end, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf),
fill = viridis(4)[4], alpha = 0.2) +
geom_rect(data = data_frame(start = as.Date("1971-08-15"),
end = as.Date("1981-08-15")),
aes(xmin = start, xmax = end, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf),
fill = viridis(4)[4], alpha = 0.2) +
geom_rect(data = data_frame(start = as.Date("2007-01-01"),
end = as.Date("2012-01-01")),
aes(xmin = start, xmax = end, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf),
fill = viridis(4)[4], alpha = 0.2) +
geom_rect(data = data_frame(start = as.Date("2015-01-01"),
end = as.Date("2019-08-01")),
aes(xmin = start, xmax = end, ymin = -Inf, ymax = +Inf),
fill = viridis(4)[4], alpha = 0.2) +
geom_text(data = data_frame(start = c(1974, 1993, 2006, 2014) %>% paste0("-01-01") %>% as.Date,
percent = c(-0.14, -0.15, -0.14, -0.15),
name = c("Stagflation", "Missing Inflation", "Missing Deflation", "Missing Inflation")),
aes(x = start, y = percent, label = name),
size = 3, vjust = 0, hjust = 0, nudge_x = 50, color = grey(0.3))
